Showing posts with label Labour Party. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Labour Party. Show all posts

Saturday, 17 June 2017

Humpty Dumpty and the Arrogance Of Yam: The Fallout Of A Most Unnecessary Election

Image Source: Twitter
Written By: Scott Gunnion

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Having arched ambitiously in their kitten heels and reached confidently for the sun armed, not with conceit, but with what seems in retrospect to be an overwhelming sense of self-belief armed with a touch of conceit.

Victory was assured, it seemed. The glory days of Thatcher resurrected and realised once more under the steady hand of Yam.

Nothing less than a mammoth Tory majority of Thatcherite proportions would suffice, with Mother Theresa reigning supreme. Destined, they thought, for an inevitable coronation.

Such assumptions were universal across the political divide. "Disaster" cried the Blairite left. A rumbling not seen since Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto aptly dubbed the “longest suicide note in history” was cast in stone from the get-go.

But last Friday, Britain awoke in a state of bewilderment, a state of disarray. From the Daily Mail middle to the mobilised millions of younger voters in the infancy of their political involvement.

At the time, Yam called the whistle on the general election, Corbyn was a contaminated brand. It was fact. A rigid idealist and aging relic burdened with the forgotten dogma of 80s-era Labour. He was unelectable. Everybody besides Diane Abbott said so. It was the flawed assumption successfully masquerading itself as a fact.

To be fair, Yam's decision to call an election was far from ill-advised.

The Tories benefitted from an immensely favourable political climate, with poll leads stretching north of 20%, enough to make even the bitterest cynic salivate and fall into line. The lead was insurmountable, it seemed.

Jezza was cream. Or toast, at least.

Then came the backlash over the dementia tax, the first massive gaffe of the campaign. Far from strong, steady leadership, Yam threw a wobbler. She bottled it, and then she backtracked. Then, she denied backtracking. The would-be heir to Thatcher U-turning the way Thatcher swore she would never do.

Then, rumours began to seep out that she failed to consult senior ministers about the “dementia tax” that she operated an autocratic regime that sidelined collective Cabinet government in favour of an inner circle of sycophants and yes me, neither elected nor accountable.

Sure, it was nothing compared to Diane Abbott's daily splash of gaffes, but it showed that she was weak-willed. This much-hyped (much, much-hyped) strong, stable leadership was nowhere in sight.

Yet UKIP's inevitable evaporation seemed to buttress her poll numbers, making an outright victory seem all the more assured.

But for all her qualities and attributes, of which there are many, Yam is dull on the stump. As awkward as she is cautious. The role of chief salesman for the party did not come natural to her.

She doesn't inspire, but she does divide.

But what was Theresa's grand folly?

Recent terrorist atrocities thrust national security in the election spotlight. Yam spent six years as Home Secretary but she failed to seize the initiative on this front.

Mumblings about Corbyn's pacifist inclinations and his alleged IRA sympathies never seemed to gain traction beyond the exclusive circles frequented by the right wing commentariat. His economic populism seemed to strike a chord with his natural constituency whilst appealing in particular to millennials and first time voters.

Jezza, to his credit, speaks clearly and is indisputably principled, and he energised his supporters with his populist posturings. He speaks to his constituency and he speaks for his constituency, talking about the issues they believe in and from the viewpoint and perspective with which they live, feel and breathe them.

As the election went on, Corbyn crept up, though the polls consistently predicted large Tory leads and similarly large majorities.

The announcement of a snap election reeked of naked opportunism. It seemed more of an attempt to swell the ranks of the parliamentary party than an attempt to secure the strong mandate (allegedly) essential to the successful implementation of Brexit.

Yam began the campaign with strong approval ratings and a modest working majority: a sufficient, functional working majority. So was it hubris or greed that motivated her to call an election midway through the life of a parliament and risk it all? It was, I suspect, hubris. Yes-men goading her and whispering in her ear. A distraction we could have easily done without.

Though the outcome was far from disastrous for the Conservatives. They scored 42% of the popular vote, an increase in 6%. For some context, Cameron never passed 37% of the vote. The downside is that Corbyn added 10% to the party's 2015 performance. That's 10% more than Ed Miliband achieved and, all the more shockingly, 11% more than Gordon Brown could muster in 2010. The Conservatives did well, very well - but Labour did better. Blair won 43% in 1997 and secured a colossal majority, same with Thatcher in 1983. But both benefited from severely weakened opponents. No such luck for Mother Theresa.

The result, from the perspective of Corbyn, was nothing less than a stunner. Sensational.

Prior to the election, all the internal rumblings from Labour insiders were of imminent, irrevocable doom. Well that shut them up.

Has there ever been an election where the winning side behaved as though they had lost and the losing side paraded about as though they had won, when clearly they had not?

Now, the prevailing mood in Labour is one of vindication. It ought to be smug, and so easily could have been, but that fails to have materialised. From the ashes of limp and flailing opposition, written off and ridiculed in equal measure, stands a government in waiting.

And nobody saw it coming. Did they?

Friday, 5 May 2017

Rotheram Rocks It

Image Source: Twitter
Written By: Scott Gunnion

So, true to what surely must have been almost universally-held expectations, Steve Rotheram has been elected Mayor of the Liverpool City Region. It was a decisive victory for a campaign that was never ever really in doubt.

And splat goes Anderson, diminished and dethroned. Egg on face in place of his usual morning fry-up. And though he never could seem to fit into those pinstriped parachutes he wore as suits, it was the local Labour electorate that decided he was ultimately too big for his boots.

His very political survival is now entirely dependant on being adopted as the Labour candidate for Liverpool Walton, though there are rumblings that Corbyn's son has his eyes on the plum seat, plus what's to guarantee they'd have Anderson anyway? After all, he did poll pitifully behind Rotheram in the primary to decide Labour's candidate for the Metro Mayoralty.

What is truly interesting about the result is that the Tory candidate, perennial bridesmaid Tony Caldeira, managed to crack 20%; I expected 10%, at best. And even that would have been impressive. Perhaps that is an omen for things to come in the uber-marginals on Merseyside: Wirral West, Wirral South and Southport seats.

The Lib Dems were decimated, polling a paltry 6%. You have to remember, up until 2010, the Lib Dems ruled supreme on Liverpool City Council. Now they are nothing. They're not invited to the stag night and they're certainly not invited to the hen party.

So what now for Steve? He has a vast budget to preside over. In Parliament, he was Corbyn's bag man (Parliamentary Private Secretary officially), but now he has the chance to be his own man.

He starts at an immediate advantage: he isn't Joe, who seems to me to be widely reviled, discredited, sneered at and dismissed. For some reason, Liverpool Labour just hasn't taken to him.

But this is Rotheram's time to shine. He kicked Caldeira to the kerb and now Joe's a no-show at the table of decision-makers.

The Liverpool region Mayoralty, like its Manchester equivalent, will be the standard by which future guinea pigs in this democratic experiment are judged by.

Get it right, and this could mark a whole new era in devolution and democratic participation. Get it wrong, and power will retreat from the people and land in the safe haven of Parliament's smothering embrace and the covetous hands of the London-centric elites.

We shall wait and see ...

Friday, 21 April 2017

Anderson's No Thai Bride - He's A Prize Pig

Image Source: Daily Mail
Written By: Scott Gunnion

It came as no surprise with the news that outgoing Mayor of Liverpool, Joe Anderson, had set his sights on the ultra-safe Commons seat of Liverpool Walton, the very seat currently - but only temporarily - being kept warm by Anderson's prevailing rival for the Liverpool Region Mayoralty, Steve Rotheram.

You could call it an official trade - one job for another.

If you ask me, Joe Anderson gets a bad rap.

I often find myself on the receiving end of his (seemingly) insurmountable number of critics. So too do I often absorb innumerate casual references to corruption, incompetence and an alleged penchant for "backhanders". All non-founded and no proof has ever been offered up, from my experience. But said accusations are often condemning by virtue of their very existence.

He hasn't got a bad heart. His suits may be ill-fitted, but his sincerity isn't in doubt.

And I don't think he'll ever be at the centre of "Operation Yam" - the name of a potential future prostitution or abuse scandal like Operation Yewtree and its sister investigation.

Rotheram relinquishing his seat in Parliament - the safest Labour seat in the country - and, by my estimations, the only in which the winning candidate achieved in excess of 80% of the vote, has created a natural opening for Anderson.

Being Labour's safest seat, it would ordinarily be fiercely sought after and contended by the creme de la creme of Labour's most esteemed and distinguished consortium of budding candidates.

But due to the snap election, candidates are likely to be imposed on local constituency associations by central organisations.

It is bluntly obvious that Anderson is the perfect candidate and would be a fierce advocate for the interests of Liverpool Walton.

He would be ill-inclined to divert his attentions away from politics in favour of the enticing carousel of corporate offerings and directorships likely to fall at his feet as he exits the Mayoralty. He has no background in business and, I strongly suspect, no appetite for a second life in the private sector.

It is nothing but a natural progression for somebody who, for five years as Major, has enjoyed an imposing public profile and enviable name recognition.

Being Mayor of Liverpool offers an unparalleled bully pulpit. There is a minimal number of big city mayors in the UK. Liverpool is unique in its full frontal embrace of the big city mayoralty and always has been.

Anderson is a dependable fixture on the Sunday morning news programmes, bestowing upon him the fruits of a largely unrivalled platform from which to speak up for the city, the region and its interests.

Anderson's fierce doggedness and obvious passion would make for a ferocious backbencher in what is likely to be a strong Tory government with an imposing majority.

So too would Anderson's well-fined media skills make him both high-profile and high-calibre. He would stand out in what is likely destined to be a shrunken parliamentary party, bereft of talent with the mass exodus of experienced MPs in marginal seats and the high number of largely-inexperienced, novice newly-elected MPs potentially likely to be elected lacking the benefits of his extensive local government experience and the skills and talents that come with it.

Walton could do far worse than Anderson. If anything, he is the ideal candidate.

Reports of Jeremy Corbyn's son Seb being parachuted in by the central party should be cause for concern.

But when push comes to shove - rather the bitch than the pup.

But that's just my opinion.

Friday, 14 April 2017

The imminent ascent of Rotheram

Image Source: Twitter
Written By: Scott Gunnion

To be frank, I am both surprised and slightly taken aback by the mock furore surrounding Steve Rotheram's latest campaign leaflet that takes aim at the Tories, as striking and glossy as it may be.

I've been left largely confused.

What did it say that hadn't already been said hundreds of times of before, and that is a conservative estimate?

Liverpool is anti-Tory to its core. Unapologetically so.

The leaflet was both visually striking and acutely (indeed effortlessly) tuned to the concerns of its target electorate.

If anything, the leaflet is flawed only in that it neglectfully restricts Merseyside's woes to the well-documented traumas of the 1980s and fails to acknowledge that Liverpool did not suddenly rise like a Phoenix to become a cultural and economic powerhouse under 13 years of Labour rule. Liverpool was no heir to Blair and remained stale and in decline under Brown.

The fact that the Conservatives routinely receive as little as 5-10% of the vote across the length and breadth of Liverpool is plainly indicative of the fact that they do not, have never, and can (probably) never hope to identify with the voters of the Liverpool city region.

The leaflet spoke to and delved deeply into Liverpool's deep anti-Tory sentiment.

It is and will no doubt be a vote-winner, not a loser, in what is reliable Labour territory. Will it increase turnout? No. But will it encourage those already inclined to vote? Yes. Of that, I am in no doubt.

The epic dominance of Labour in the Liverpool city region leaves a vacuum that needs to be filled. But it poses this question: how do you establish and define yourself against an enemy when your nearest rival is polling as little as 10% and fortune happens that you enjoy a monstrous majority exceeding 50%, even on a disappointing day?

Rotheram's leaflet is confident, albeit unremarkable, in most respects, completely unexceptional.

Nothing fresh, nothing new, but reassuring to the voters it seeks to appeal to in its frank familiarity.

It marks him out as a forceful leader with a deep understanding of his constituency's past and a towering, infinite zeal for the passion and ideas that will drive its future.

To the council members on the opposing side of this debate, I say: quit your bitching and quit your biting. Accept that new leadership is on the horizon and make a conscious effort to be part of the solution and not the problem. It is far easier to protest than it is to make a positive contribution. Distinction is found in devotion, not dissent.

Sunday, 9 April 2017

The Corbyn Conundrum

Image Source: Twitter
Written By: Scott Gunnion

The uber-left wing of the Labour Party is enjoying its moment in the sun. And it has much to celebrate. Jeremy Corbyn has been elected leader, not once but twice - and on the second occasion, with an increased share of the vote. He is the clear choice of party members and of a pious minority of Labour MPs.

Party members have twice had the opportunity to select the safe and reliable Andy Burnham, the more obvious and conventional candidate, and twice they have turned their noses up and said 'no thank you'. Even in 2010, they opted for Ed Miliband, the candidate deemed to be closest to the left of the party, against the favoured candidate David Miliband.

And so we find ourselves blessed or burdened - depending on your political inclination - with Jeremy Corbyn as leader of Her Majesty's Opposition. The consequences of this are significant. For the first time in my lifetime, there are clear, conflicting policy differences separating the two major parties. The comfortable centrist consensus synonymus with the Blair and Cameron eras no longer marries the Labour and Conservative parties to the political centre.

The culmination of increasingly divergent policy positions is one of deep and significant division.

Corbyn is obviously a deeply principled individual. He believes what he believes and he stands doggedly by those beliefs. That is something to be admired, irrespective of which side of the political divide you find yourself. He seems averse to compromise and doesn't yield to the pressure of constant criticism in the media and from the majority of his own MPs, many of whom refuse to serve in his shadow cabinet or acknowledge the legitimacy of his leadership.

Defiant of the established political order and against all expectations, he has seized control of the Labour party and steered it firmly to the left of the political spectrum. His instincts and ideology correspond closely with the politics of the 1980s and the trendy posturings and pious idealism befitting of the student union. In this respect, he is a relic of a bygone era, one largely forgotten and rendered irrelevant by the realignment of the Thatcher years. Those sympathetic to his leanings are largely extinct.

His ideological purity is unquestionable. He is an unreconstructed liberal. The singular heir of an uncelebrated era of thinking. It's fair to say he doesn't seem to have adapted or moderated his convictions since his days as a student.

The parliamentary Labour party is a disobedient beast. Opposition to Corbyn's leadership is brazen and a substantial number of MPs make no attempt to conceal their disapproval and open contempt.

Corbyn was a perpetual rebel during the Blair/Brown years and could be depended on to disobey the party line. The scale of his rebellion was immense by any measure. Now, the tables have turned. Corbyn now finds himself at the helm of a parliamentary party that is restless, disobedient, barren of restraints and beyond his control. His efforts to whip his MPs and establish party unity are futile and largely in vain. He lacks credibility.

Corbyn has used his leadership to revive the big debates of yesteryear, nuclear disarnament and nationalisation being prime examples. These issues, once pressing, have largely been addressed, rendered irrelevant over time and consigned to the history books.

There is an overwhelming sense that Jeremy Corbyn leads a largely lonely existence. His parliamentary party rejects him and holds him in contempt and refuses to serve in his shadow cabinet. They don't want to be tainted by association.

So what now for Jeremy Corbyn? If he can't inspire confidence in his immediate subordinates, then how can he hope to inspire the confidence of a skeptical electorate?

The onus is on Corbyn to display nothing other than constant, uncompromising competence from now until the next election and to develop credible policy positions on issues relevant to the electorate of today, not the electorate of a time gone by. He must learn to understand the issues important to voters and put aside the unresolved personal concerns that no longer inspire the passion of voters in the here and now.