Showing posts with label Jeremy Corbyn. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jeremy Corbyn. Show all posts

Saturday, 17 June 2017

Humpty Dumpty and the Arrogance Of Yam: The Fallout Of A Most Unnecessary Election

Image Source: Twitter
Written By: Scott Gunnion

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Having arched ambitiously in their kitten heels and reached confidently for the sun armed, not with conceit, but with what seems in retrospect to be an overwhelming sense of self-belief armed with a touch of conceit.

Victory was assured, it seemed. The glory days of Thatcher resurrected and realised once more under the steady hand of Yam.

Nothing less than a mammoth Tory majority of Thatcherite proportions would suffice, with Mother Theresa reigning supreme. Destined, they thought, for an inevitable coronation.

Such assumptions were universal across the political divide. "Disaster" cried the Blairite left. A rumbling not seen since Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto aptly dubbed the “longest suicide note in history” was cast in stone from the get-go.

But last Friday, Britain awoke in a state of bewilderment, a state of disarray. From the Daily Mail middle to the mobilised millions of younger voters in the infancy of their political involvement.

At the time, Yam called the whistle on the general election, Corbyn was a contaminated brand. It was fact. A rigid idealist and aging relic burdened with the forgotten dogma of 80s-era Labour. He was unelectable. Everybody besides Diane Abbott said so. It was the flawed assumption successfully masquerading itself as a fact.

To be fair, Yam's decision to call an election was far from ill-advised.

The Tories benefitted from an immensely favourable political climate, with poll leads stretching north of 20%, enough to make even the bitterest cynic salivate and fall into line. The lead was insurmountable, it seemed.

Jezza was cream. Or toast, at least.

Then came the backlash over the dementia tax, the first massive gaffe of the campaign. Far from strong, steady leadership, Yam threw a wobbler. She bottled it, and then she backtracked. Then, she denied backtracking. The would-be heir to Thatcher U-turning the way Thatcher swore she would never do.

Then, rumours began to seep out that she failed to consult senior ministers about the “dementia tax” that she operated an autocratic regime that sidelined collective Cabinet government in favour of an inner circle of sycophants and yes me, neither elected nor accountable.

Sure, it was nothing compared to Diane Abbott's daily splash of gaffes, but it showed that she was weak-willed. This much-hyped (much, much-hyped) strong, stable leadership was nowhere in sight.

Yet UKIP's inevitable evaporation seemed to buttress her poll numbers, making an outright victory seem all the more assured.

But for all her qualities and attributes, of which there are many, Yam is dull on the stump. As awkward as she is cautious. The role of chief salesman for the party did not come natural to her.

She doesn't inspire, but she does divide.

But what was Theresa's grand folly?

Recent terrorist atrocities thrust national security in the election spotlight. Yam spent six years as Home Secretary but she failed to seize the initiative on this front.

Mumblings about Corbyn's pacifist inclinations and his alleged IRA sympathies never seemed to gain traction beyond the exclusive circles frequented by the right wing commentariat. His economic populism seemed to strike a chord with his natural constituency whilst appealing in particular to millennials and first time voters.

Jezza, to his credit, speaks clearly and is indisputably principled, and he energised his supporters with his populist posturings. He speaks to his constituency and he speaks for his constituency, talking about the issues they believe in and from the viewpoint and perspective with which they live, feel and breathe them.

As the election went on, Corbyn crept up, though the polls consistently predicted large Tory leads and similarly large majorities.

The announcement of a snap election reeked of naked opportunism. It seemed more of an attempt to swell the ranks of the parliamentary party than an attempt to secure the strong mandate (allegedly) essential to the successful implementation of Brexit.

Yam began the campaign with strong approval ratings and a modest working majority: a sufficient, functional working majority. So was it hubris or greed that motivated her to call an election midway through the life of a parliament and risk it all? It was, I suspect, hubris. Yes-men goading her and whispering in her ear. A distraction we could have easily done without.

Though the outcome was far from disastrous for the Conservatives. They scored 42% of the popular vote, an increase in 6%. For some context, Cameron never passed 37% of the vote. The downside is that Corbyn added 10% to the party's 2015 performance. That's 10% more than Ed Miliband achieved and, all the more shockingly, 11% more than Gordon Brown could muster in 2010. The Conservatives did well, very well - but Labour did better. Blair won 43% in 1997 and secured a colossal majority, same with Thatcher in 1983. But both benefited from severely weakened opponents. No such luck for Mother Theresa.

The result, from the perspective of Corbyn, was nothing less than a stunner. Sensational.

Prior to the election, all the internal rumblings from Labour insiders were of imminent, irrevocable doom. Well that shut them up.

Has there ever been an election where the winning side behaved as though they had lost and the losing side paraded about as though they had won, when clearly they had not?

Now, the prevailing mood in Labour is one of vindication. It ought to be smug, and so easily could have been, but that fails to have materialised. From the ashes of limp and flailing opposition, written off and ridiculed in equal measure, stands a government in waiting.

And nobody saw it coming. Did they?

Sunday, 9 April 2017

The Corbyn Conundrum

Image Source: Twitter
Written By: Scott Gunnion

The uber-left wing of the Labour Party is enjoying its moment in the sun. And it has much to celebrate. Jeremy Corbyn has been elected leader, not once but twice - and on the second occasion, with an increased share of the vote. He is the clear choice of party members and of a pious minority of Labour MPs.

Party members have twice had the opportunity to select the safe and reliable Andy Burnham, the more obvious and conventional candidate, and twice they have turned their noses up and said 'no thank you'. Even in 2010, they opted for Ed Miliband, the candidate deemed to be closest to the left of the party, against the favoured candidate David Miliband.

And so we find ourselves blessed or burdened - depending on your political inclination - with Jeremy Corbyn as leader of Her Majesty's Opposition. The consequences of this are significant. For the first time in my lifetime, there are clear, conflicting policy differences separating the two major parties. The comfortable centrist consensus synonymus with the Blair and Cameron eras no longer marries the Labour and Conservative parties to the political centre.

The culmination of increasingly divergent policy positions is one of deep and significant division.

Corbyn is obviously a deeply principled individual. He believes what he believes and he stands doggedly by those beliefs. That is something to be admired, irrespective of which side of the political divide you find yourself. He seems averse to compromise and doesn't yield to the pressure of constant criticism in the media and from the majority of his own MPs, many of whom refuse to serve in his shadow cabinet or acknowledge the legitimacy of his leadership.

Defiant of the established political order and against all expectations, he has seized control of the Labour party and steered it firmly to the left of the political spectrum. His instincts and ideology correspond closely with the politics of the 1980s and the trendy posturings and pious idealism befitting of the student union. In this respect, he is a relic of a bygone era, one largely forgotten and rendered irrelevant by the realignment of the Thatcher years. Those sympathetic to his leanings are largely extinct.

His ideological purity is unquestionable. He is an unreconstructed liberal. The singular heir of an uncelebrated era of thinking. It's fair to say he doesn't seem to have adapted or moderated his convictions since his days as a student.

The parliamentary Labour party is a disobedient beast. Opposition to Corbyn's leadership is brazen and a substantial number of MPs make no attempt to conceal their disapproval and open contempt.

Corbyn was a perpetual rebel during the Blair/Brown years and could be depended on to disobey the party line. The scale of his rebellion was immense by any measure. Now, the tables have turned. Corbyn now finds himself at the helm of a parliamentary party that is restless, disobedient, barren of restraints and beyond his control. His efforts to whip his MPs and establish party unity are futile and largely in vain. He lacks credibility.

Corbyn has used his leadership to revive the big debates of yesteryear, nuclear disarnament and nationalisation being prime examples. These issues, once pressing, have largely been addressed, rendered irrelevant over time and consigned to the history books.

There is an overwhelming sense that Jeremy Corbyn leads a largely lonely existence. His parliamentary party rejects him and holds him in contempt and refuses to serve in his shadow cabinet. They don't want to be tainted by association.

So what now for Jeremy Corbyn? If he can't inspire confidence in his immediate subordinates, then how can he hope to inspire the confidence of a skeptical electorate?

The onus is on Corbyn to display nothing other than constant, uncompromising competence from now until the next election and to develop credible policy positions on issues relevant to the electorate of today, not the electorate of a time gone by. He must learn to understand the issues important to voters and put aside the unresolved personal concerns that no longer inspire the passion of voters in the here and now.